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Soubor:Projected carbon dioxide emissions and atmospheric concentrations over the 21st century for reference and mitigation scenarios.png

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English: These two graphs show projected changes over the 21st century in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and atmospheric concentrations for reference and climate change mitigation scenarios. In the reference scenarios (light grey), it is assumed that no efforts are made to reduce anthropogenic (i.e., human-produced) greenhouse gas emissions. In the mitigation scenarios, anthropogenic CO2 emissions are reduced sufficiently to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations at approximately 450 to 750 parts-per-million by volume (ppmv).[1] Non-CO2 anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are also reduced in the stabilization scenarios, but this is not shown in the graph.

In the mitigation scenarios, CO2 emissions peak then decline. The lower the atmospheric stabilization level of CO2, the sooner the peak occurs. In the 450 ppm scenario, emissions peak in 2010. In the 550 ppm scenario, emissions level off between 2010 and 2050, then decline. In the 650 ppm scenario, emissions peak in 2050, while in the 750 ppm scenario, they peak in 2060-70.

Emissions in the reference scenarios vary widely. In the highest emissions reference scenario, emissions increase steadily over most of the 21st century. In the lowest emissions reference scenario, emissions peak in 2050 then decline.

In all of the mitigation scenarios, atmospheric CO2 concentrations in 2000 are 371 ppm. Concentrations increase gradually over the century. In 2100, concentrations in the mitigation scenarios are 451, 526, 614, and 677 ppm. In the reference scenarios, concentrations in 2000 range between 369 and 372 ppm. In 2100, concentrations range from 553 to 901 ppmv.

Emissions

Most of the scenario data is listed in a later section as comma-separated values. The following text briefly summarizes changes in CO2 emissions for the scenarios. The first number is the year, labelled (y). This is followed by the projected range of emissions across the reference scenarios (r), then the projected range of emissions across the mitigation scenarios. The following labels are used for the mitigation scenarios: L1 = 450 ppm, L2 = 550 ppm, L3 = 650 ppm, L4 = 750 ppm. Emissions are measured in billion tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2):

  • 2000 (y), 24-30 (r), 24 (L1 to L4)
  • 2030 (y), 34-52 (r), 21 (L1), 32 (L2), 38 (L3), 42 (L4)
  • 2060 (y), 39-85 (r), 16 (L1), 28 (L2), 44 (L3), 55 (L4)
  • 2090 (y), 26-101 (r), 15 (L1), 22 (L2), 33 (L3), 46 (L4)
  • 2100 (y), 21-103 (r), 14 (L1), 21 (L2), 30 (L3), 39 (L4)

Concentrations

The following text summarizes changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations for the scenarios. The same labels are used as for emissions. Concentrations are measured in parts-per-million by volume (ppmv):

  • 2000 (y), 369-372 (r), 371 (L1 to L4)
  • 2030 (y), 434-453 (r), 414 (L1), 431 (L2), 439 (L3), 444 (L4)
  • 2060 (y), 509-603 (r), 435 (L1), 488 (L2), 531 (L3), 554 (L4)
  • 2090 (y), 549-821 (r), 449 (L1), 520 (L2), 600 (L3), 654 (L4)
  • 2100 (y), 553-901 (r), 451 (L1), 526 (L2), 614 (L3), 677 (L4)

Data sources

Scenario data are taken from Clarke et al. (2007)[2] and the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA, 2009).[3] Data from Clarke et al. (2007)[2] are in the public-domain, and are included in a following section. Data from IIASA (2009)[3] can be freely downloaded from their website.

The graph is based on six reference scenarios and four mitigation scenarios. Three of the reference scenarios are taken from Clarke et al. (2007), and are labelled "IGSM_REF", "MERGE_REF", and "MINICAM_REF". The other three reference scenarios are taken from IIASA (2009), and are labelled "A2r - Baseline", "B1 - Baseline", and "B2 – Baseline." All three of the mitigation scenarios are taken from Clarke et al. (2007), and are labelled "IGSM_Level1", "IGSM_Level2", "IGSM_Level3", and "IGSM_Level4".

Notes

  1. ↑ Table TS.2, in: "Technical Summary," in Clarke & others 2007, p. 9
  2. ↑ a b CCSP-2-1A-Scenario-Information-070707.xls, in Clarke & others 2007
  3. ↑ a b IIASA 2009

References

  • Clarke, L., et al. (2007-07) Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations. Sub-report 2.1A of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research[1], Washington, DC., USA: Department of Energy, Office of Biological & Environmental Research
  • IIASA (2009) International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) GGI Scenario Database Ver 2.0[2]
Datum
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Data

As stated, only public-domain data from Clarke et al. (2007) are included. Data from IIASA (2009) can be freely accessed from their website.

Data were exported from OpenOffice.org 3.4.1 Calc as comma separated values (csv). The following options were used:

  • Character set: Western Europe 1252
  • Field delimiter: ,
  • Text delimiter: "
  • Quote all text cells: no
  • Save cell content as shown: yes
  • Fixed column width: no
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
,Region,Category,Sub Category,Variable,Units,Run Label,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,2050,2060,2070,2080,2090,2100
,World,Climate Info,Anthropogenic Emissions,Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 ,gigatonnes of C,IGSM_REF,6.6842737198,8.612683805,10.7913220822,12.9109122699,15.5859919198,18.0949347622,20.1681232183,21.6016525719,22.7027775309,23.5308099523,24.1038326684
,World,Climate Info,Anthropogenic Emissions,Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 ,gigatonnes of C,IGSM_Level1,6.6842737207,8.612683805,6.298030909,5.7749571923,5.0600890858,4.4762424559,4.2689948554,4.2433450752,4.1848760513,4.0449946885,3.8263214058
,World,Climate Info,Anthropogenic Emissions,Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 ,gigatonnes of C,IGSM_Level2,6.6842737207,8.612683805,8.2957637412,8.7209027128,8.914172585,8.3905127406,7.5828567835,7.0004639576,6.4626998619,6.0163542361,5.636843884
,World,Climate Info,Anthropogenic Emissions,Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 ,gigatonnes of C,IGSM_Level3,6.6842737207,8.612683805,9.2226192094,10.3282657853,11.5943139537,12.3364070465,11.9520173233,11.1313954092,10.2522160389,9.0804844477,8.3201781476
,World,Climate Info,Anthropogenic Emissions,Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 ,gigatonnes of C,IGSM_Level4,6.6842737207,8.612683805,9.7679410566,11.3304716767,13.103451506,14.3740065343,14.9653345385,14.8518230509,13.8170843706,12.6217674441,10.7728804456
,World,Climate Info,Anthropogenic Emissions,Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 ,gigatonnes of C,MERGE_REF,6.619,7.1614349107,8.5126944839,9.2902614648,10.1252341026,11.0711972538,13.2817937913,15.8846994758,18.4800859978,21.089701103,23.8686301812
,World,Climate Info,Anthropogenic Emissions,Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 ,gigatonnes of C,MINICAM_REF,6.7,8.1567373867,9.4914819553,10.9132339838,12.3469394395,13.7925983222,15.5019933728,17.2248334433,18.9611185336,20.6999068525,22.4386951713
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
,convert C to CO2,3.6641245525,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
,Region,Category,Sub Category,Variable,Units,Run Label,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,2050,2060,2070,2080,2090,2100
,World,Climate Info,Anthropogenic Emissions,Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 ,gigatonnes of CO2,IGSM_REF,24.4920114522,31.5579461926,39.5407481952,47.3071906431,57.1090156682,66.3020947381,73.898515462,79.151145563,83.1858045606,86.2198184863,88.3194450896
,World,Climate Info,Anthropogenic Emissions,Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 ,gigatonnes of CO2,IGSM_Level1,24.4920114555,31.5579461926,23.0767696861,21.1601624379,18.5407966569,16.4015098854,15.6421288641,15.5481448748,15.3339070888,14.8213643527,14.0201182089
,World,Climate Info,Anthropogenic Emissions,Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 ,gigatonnes of CO2,IGSM_Level2,24.4920114555,31.5579461926,30.3967116057,31.9544737501,32.6626386339,30.7438837409,27.7845317186,25.6505718657,23.6801372393,22.0446712728,20.6540980741
,World,Climate Info,Anthropogenic Emissions,Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 ,gigatonnes of CO2,IGSM_Level3,24.4920114555,31.5579461926,33.7928254835,37.8440522484,42.4830104269,45.2021319487,43.793680126,40.7868192224,37.5653965057,33.2720260133,30.4861690319
,World,Climate Info,Anthropogenic Emissions,Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 ,gigatonnes of CO2,IGSM_Level4,24.4920114555,31.5579461926,35.7909526528,41.5162594618,48.0126783856,52.6681502602,54.8348497189,54.4189294902,50.627518086,46.2477279879,39.4731757417
,World,Climate Info,Anthropogenic Emissions,Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 ,gigatonnes of CO2,MERGE_REF,24.252840413,26.2403894872,31.1915728662,34.0406751324,37.1001188753,40.5662456832,48.666146732,58.2035173583,67.7133368369,77.2752916163,87.4576338814
,World,Climate Info,Anthropogenic Emissions,Fossil and Other Industrial CO2 ,gigatonnes of CO2,MINICAM_REF,24.5496345017,29.887301727,34.7779720721,39.9874485873,45.2407239482,50.5377981549,56.8012345299,63.1139351322,69.4758999617,75.8470369324,82.2181739031
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
,Region,Category,Sub Category,Variable,Units,Run Label,2000,2010,2020,2030,2040,2050,2060,2070,2080,2090,2100
,World,Climate Info,Concentrations,CO2 ,ppmv,IGSM_REF,371,392,419,453,494,544,603,666,733,803,875
,World,Climate Info,Concentrations,CO2 ,ppmv,IGSM_Level1,371,392,402,414,423,430,435,440,445,449,451
,World,Climate Info,Concentrations,CO2 ,ppmv,IGSM_Level2,371,392,410,431,452,472,488,500,511,520,526
,World,Climate Info,Concentrations,CO2 ,ppmv,IGSM_Level3,371,392,414,439,468,500,531,558,581,600,614
,World,Climate Info,Concentrations,CO2 ,ppmv,IGSM_Level4,371,392,415,444,478,514,554,591,624,654,677
,World,Climate Info,Concentrations,CO2 ,ppmv,MERGE_REF,370,389,410,434,459,485,516,555,600,652,711
,World,Climate Info,Concentrations,CO2 ,ppmv,MINICAM_REF,372,393,417,444,474,507,547,590,636,691,746

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